Sportrabbit Blog

Check out the new Sportrabbit Blog at blog.sportrabbit.com. The blog will touch on the sporting goods industry, buyers guides, product reviews and much more.

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Top 10 Prospects Still in the Minors

With the flurry of June promotions to the big leagues, I went back and reviewed my Top 101 Prospects list coming into the year. As it turns out, it's been completely obliterated, with five of the top six and seven of the top 10 players now in the big leagues. That got me wondering, who are the top 11 prospects still left in the minors? The answer wasn't an easy one, as we've lost so much elite talent to the big leagues. This does not have the same level of behind-the-scenes work as a standard team Top 11 or pre-season Top 101, but these rankings are based on discussions with various scouts and front office officials.

1. Domonic Brown, OF, Philles
Why He's Here: Now that the power is playing, there is nothing he can't do. A .318/.391/.602 line at Double-A Reading had it all, with 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 65 games to go with a solid walk rate and no platoon issues. You can't find a player at the upper levels with a better combination of athleticism, performance, and room to get better.
Nitpicking: Brown's speed is just a tick above average, and he'll likely end up more of an athletic slugger than a true power/speed threat.
Future: With Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth, there's just no room for Brown in the big leagues right now. Yes, Ibanez is horrible, but the Phillies aren't going to bench that contract. Brown will likely be up in September, and likely replacing Werth in right field next year when the incumbent departs via free agency.

2. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
Why He's Here: It's not just the ridiculous .367/.449/.543 line at Low-A Cedar Rapids, as it's hard to find a scout who isn't downright giddy after watching him. He can hit, he's a plus-plus runner, he's going to hit for way more power down the road, his approach is good, and he's a fine center fielder. What more do you want? How about a max-effort player who runs out every ground ball and does it with a smile on his face? One scout gave him the highest compliment one can get from a talent evaluator: "I'd pay to watch him play."
Nitpicking: One has to wonder how long Trout will remain a 70 runner (on the 20-to-80 scouting scale), because at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, he's physically the most atypical burner around. He's not going to get slow, but it's hard to see him being a plus-plus runner when he's 25.
Future: Trout should be in High-A right now, and he could be in Double-A next year before his 20th birthday. He has a chance to be ahead of the big-league opening created when Torii Hunter's contract expires after the 2011 season.

3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
Why He's Here: He's 19 years old and has utterly dominated both A-ball stops with 97 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 83 2/3 innings to go with a 2.04 ERA. To find a teenager with that kind of command is rare enough, but Teheran adds three above-average pitches to the mix with a dominating 92-97 mph fastball, as well as a curve and changeup that both rate as plus.
Nitpicking: Teheran doesn't have the prettiest or smoothest delivery in the world, but it's repeatable and works for him, so there's no reason to mess with it.
Future: Teheran could be in Double-A by the end of the season, and that would put him on a timetable with a shot at a 2011 big-league debut, well before his 21stbirthday.

4. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
Why He's Here: There's not a pitcher in the minors with more finesse and pitchability than Hellickson, but he has very good stuff as well, with a fastball than sits at 91-93 mph and touches 95, a good curve, and one of the better changeups you'll find among prospects. With a 2.16 ERA in 16 starts for Triple-A Durham and almost more strikeouts (97) than combined hits and walks allowed (102) in 94 2/3 innings, he has nothing to prove.
Nitpicking: Hellickson has some detractors amongst those who rate him purely on his size and stuff, but his ability to pitch doesn't just make his offerings play up, it plays them way up.
Future: I've said it before, but in almost any other organization in baseball, Hellickson would already be in the big leagues. A run of mediocre (or worse) outings by Wade Davis could lead to a call.

5. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
Why He's Here: After a slow start, Jennings has returned to form as the most electrifying leadoff prospect in the game, batting .353/.407/.549 in June. He gets on base, knows how to use his wheels in the field and on the basepaths, and he has enough power to be dangerous.
Nitpicking: The Carl Crawford comparisons might be a bit much, as while Jennings has 16 doubles and four triples in 196 at-bats, he didn't hit his first home run of the year until Tuesday night.
Future: The assumption coming into the year was that Crawford's impending free agency would create room for Jennings in 2011. However, with B.J. Upton's struggles on the field and with his teammates, things might end up a little differently.

6. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
Why He's Here: Well, unless you've been living under a rock, you're aware that Moustakas is hitting .336/.404/.668 in the Texas League, and that's only because he's in a bit of a slump. He might have the best pure bat speed in the minors, and when more than half of your hits (39 of 76) go for extra bases and you are hitting for average, you are officially an offensive monster. He's improved at third base, and his arm has always been a cannon, earning a few rare perfect 80 scores from scouts.
Nitpicking: Moustakas has a massive home/road split, and Northwest Arkansas is an offensive park, but it's not enough to wish away this kind of breakout. He'll never be a great, or maybe even a good third baseman, but he can stick there.
Future: Well, Alex Gordon certainly isn't in the way anymore, not after his big-league struggles and move to the outfield. As a result, the path is clear for a 2011 debut if Moustakas doesn't get a quick September look as a reward for a job well done.

7. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
Why He's Here: While the 19-year-old has had his share of ups and downs at Double-A, keep in mind his age, because the scouting reports remain stellar. If anything, he's figuring out how to harness stuff that has actually taken a step forward, as his fastball has been up to 97 mph of late, while his curveball and changeup remain highly advanced for his age. He's fired 12 shutout innings with 15 whiffs in his last two outings, and could be poised for a big second half.
Nitpicking: Perez has been losing the strike zone at times, with 34 walks in 59 innings. He'll always be a bit undersized, but with his stuff and arm action, it's a minimal concern at best.
Future: Perez's timetable may have moved back a bit, but he remains well ahead of the curve. A 2011 big-league debut isn't out of the question.

8. Jesus Montero, C/DH, Yankees
Why He's Here: Montero has just started to hit this year, batting .287/.330/.511 in June, but for a 20-year-old in Triple-A, he remains one of the more impressive offensive prospects in the game, with barrel control and raw power well beyond his years. Few scouts I've talked to have lowered their scouting scores in any way.
Nitpicking: Montero continues to improve behind the plate, but it's unlikely he'll be good enough to play there every day in the big leagues, as he leads the International League in passed balls and has thrown out just 22 percent of opposing basestealers while constantly getting run on.
Future: If he can't fit at catcher, it's unsure what Montero's future is with the Yankees, considering first baseman Mark Teixeira's long-term deal. Is he the best trade chip in baseball, or is he untouchable?

9. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
Why He's Here: While his ERA is a mediocre 4.35, Triple-A was a tough assignment for the Cuban émigré, and he's been brilliant at times, with an upper-90s fastball and power slider with two-plane break. He's been moved to relief this week in order to help the big-league team in the second half, and from the bullpen his two-pitch power combo could dominate.
Nitpicking: Chapman's effort-filled delivery means that command and control could always be an issue, and his changeup needs work. On the season, he's thrown only 61 percent of his pitches for strikes.
Future: The bullpen role is a temporary one with the Reds in playoff contention, and while he will likely be up at some time around the All-Star break, his long-term future remains as a rotation piece.

10. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
Why He's Here: The best high school arm in the 2009 draft was held back in extended spring training, but he's been outstanding in seven starts for Low-A Asheville, limiting the Sally League to a .183 batting average while striking out 39 over 35 innings. With a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96, he has plus-plus velocity for a lefty, and his curveball flashes true plus at times. He's big, athletic, projectable, and scouts love his mound presence.
Nitpicking: Matzek can lose the touch and feel on his secondary offerings, leading to control issues. He tends to work up in the zone, which could be an issue down the road.
Future: Matzek is a potentially special talent, but he's not on the fast track. He'll likely pitch at High-A in 2011.

Jared Allen Quote

I thought this was great, so I thought I would go ahead and post it:

"The mullet isn't just a hairdo. It's definitely a lifestyle. You're carrying on a legacy," he said "If I approach you from the front, it's like, wow, that dude is pretty serious. Then I walk away and you're like, damn, he likes to party. With two Rs."

Top 50 Worst Twins Ever (Click Here)

The post is up at the Startribune.com and I thought it was pretty good humor so I posted it here.

Who do you think should make the list?

Bryce Harper Report

Don't know if anyone else saw this, but Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein wrote a little article recently about Bryce Harper that I found pretty interesting. I'm not going to bother paraphrasing, I'll just copy and paste the entire article below.

Coming into this spring, Bryce Harper was universally seen as the top player in the draft, but the chances of Washington taking him with the first pick were initially handicapped as a 50/50 proposition. Harper's performance so far at the College of Southern Nevada has changed those chances significantly, as he's basically given the Nationals no excuse to pass on him by batting .401/.494/.866 with wood bats in a junior college league at the age of 17. He's crushed 17 home runs (the team has just 45) in 142 at-bats, drawn 26 walks, and even stolen 13 bases in 15 attempts while playing catcher, third base, and some center field.

Nats general manager Mike Rizzo has consummated numerous contracts in the past with super-agent Scott Boras, including Stephen Strasburg's record-breaking deal last August, so that's another non-factor. Still, while the chances of Washington selecting Harper slowly creep to "lock" status, there are still four questions remaining.

1. The Number: We're not talking about statistics anymore, we're talking about money, and there's little clarification as to just how high we'll go. The first part to understanding the problem is to know how Boras historically negotiates. Boras never just provides a number, there's always a baseline comparison, then adjustments for history (inflation). For example, Strasburg was Mark Prior plus inflation; any great hitter is Mark Teixeira plus inflation. With Harper, there is no baseline to begin at, as there's no precedent for a talent like his when it comes to age and proven ability. "You know that money is going to be extreme," said one team official, "but I have no idea where it is going to end up." Adding to the potential problem is Boras' recent public statement bemoaning the difference between what American and international players sign for as amateurs. Projections range wildly, from a figure of $7 to $8 million—which would make him the highest-paid teenager ever—to a number that exceeds Strasburg's $15.1 million, as Boras might not be willing to go backward after breaking the bank in 2009.

2. The Leverage: Without question, Harper is the most leveraged talent in draft history, and that could play a major role in this summer's negotiations. He's 17, and he's the best player in the draft. "He certainly could say, 'Give me this crazy amount of money or I'll go back to school and do it again,'" said one scouting director. "The thing here is that it would not hurt him in the least. He would do it again, and next June he'd be only 18, and the same age as most high school picks." This leverage does only last for one year, however, and the current CBA expires after the 2011 season, and changes to the draft, especially in terms of bonuses, are expected to be a major issue in the upcoming negotiations.

3. The Body: Harper is listed at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, but most think he's about an inch taller and 10 more pounds than that. To be fair, Harper is a chiseled athlete, with no complaints about his current frame, but some wonder just what he will look like when he's 25. There's an excellent chance that he looks like Joe Mauer (6-foot-5 and 230) or Matt Wieters (also 6-foot-5, and 225), but there is some fear at the outside chance of him ending up like Adam Dunn, who at this point is 6-foot-6 and is listed at 287, and is a slow, range-less behemoth. That was not always the case: Dunn was 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds coming up through the Reds’ system, and had back-to-back 20-steal seasons in his first two full years. Like Dunn, Harper is so big so early in life that it has to be at least a minor concern.

4. The Makeup: This should not be underrated. It's impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn't blown away by Harper's ability on the field, but it's equally difficult to find one who doesn't genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he's ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. "He's just a bad, bad guy," said one front-office official. "He's basically the anti-Joe Mauer." How this plays into the negotiation or future evaluation is yet to be determined, as history has shown us that the bigger talent a player is, the more makeup issues teams will deal with. Bench players can't afford to be problems, but plenty of teams happily put up with difficult superstars.

Make no mistake, these are all very real issues, but as of today none of them is keeping Washington from selecting Harper with the first pick on June 7. He's hardly "Baseball's LeBron," he's simply a unique player, and one who happens to be the most talented player in this draft by a wide margin.

A Look Back at Athalon 2007

I was going through some of my older fantasy baseball materials and I happened across the 2007 version of the Athlon magazine. For those of you who weren't employed at the Roseville Sports Authority in 2007, let me give you some history on this magazine:

The Sports Authority used to carry different Magazines, one of them being an annual baseball magazine from Athlon Sports. The magazine became kind of a joke because of some of their rankings (i.e. in 2006 Rickie Weeks was their #1 rated second baseman). Well, for me at least it was a cheap source of information- even if that info wasn't the greatest. So when we started this league back in 2007 I decided I would buy the Athalon and weigh their information against other sources that I had.

So when I ran across this magazine from the year of our league's inception, I thought it would be fun to go through it and see if Athlon really was as terrible as their reputation suggests. OR... maybe 3 years later I'll go through the magazine and find that they were right more often than they were wrong.

The best way to find out, I determined, was to go through their Top 100 list for that year (although their positional rankings had some interesting finds like Rickie Weeks listed as the #2 second baseman, Kenji Johjima listed as the #3 catcher, and Willy Tavares as a top 15 outfielder (#14)). So, if you used only Athlon when we built our organizations in the CPL's first season, you would've used their following Top 100 guide as your blueprint. Let's see how they did, and how good your team would be.

1. Johan Santana // 2. Carl Crawford // 3. Albert Pujols // 4. Jose Reyes // 5. Alex Rodriguez // 6. Vladimir Guerrero // 7. Alfonso Soriano // 8. Derrek Lee // 9. Ryan Howard // 10. Chris Carpenter // 11. Miguel Cabrera // 12. Grady Sizemore // 13. Bobby Abreu // 14. Carlos Beltran // 15. Lance Berkman // 16. Jimmy Rollins // 17. Joe Mauer // 18. Francisco Rogriguez // 19. David Wright // 20. Joe Nathan // 21. Roy Oswalt // 22. Roy Halladay // 23. Chase Utley // 24. Brandon Webb // 25. Mark Teixeira // 26. Derek Jeter // 27. Victor Martinez // 28. David Ortiz // 29. Matt Holliday // 30. Manny Ramirez // 31. Vernon Walls // 32. Ichiro Suzuki // 33. Chone Figgins // 34. Hanley Ramirez // 35. Juan Pierre // 36. Miguel Tejada // 37. Carlos Zambrano // 38. Travis Hafner // 39. BJ Ryan // 40. Mariano Rivera // 41. Justin Morneau // 42. Rafael Furcal // 43. Rickie Weeks // 44. Scott Rolen // 45. Aramis Ramirez // 46. CC Sabathia // 47. Jason Bay // 48. John Lackey // 49. Willy Tavares // 50. Carlos Lee // 51. Ben Sheets // 52. Rocco Baldelli // 53. Rich Harden // 54. Michael Cuddyer // 55. Ryan Zimmerman // 56. Jered Weaver // 57. Chris Young (SP) // 58. Jake Peavy // 59. Trevor Hoffman // 60. Alex Rios // 61. Garrett Atkins // 62. Prince Fielder // 63. Chien-Ming Wang // 64. Robinson Cano // 65. Jonathan Papelbon // 66. Huston Street // 67. Paul Konerko// 68. Jermaine Dye// 69. Hideki Matsui // 70. Andruw Jones // 71. Johnny Damon // 72. Carlos Guillen // 73. Michael Young // 74. Kenji Johjima // 75. Eric Chavez // 76. Brian McCann // 77. Ervin Santana // 78. Jeremy Bonderman // 79. Michael Barrett // 80. Edgar Rentaria // 81. JJ Putz // 82. Billy Wagner // 83. Carlos Delgado // 84. Brad Lidge // 85. Nick Markakis // 86. Torii Hunter // 87. Corey Patterson // 88. Lyle Overbay // 89. Adam Laroche // 90. Richie Sexson // 91. Todd Helton // 92. Chris Ray // 93. Magglio Ordonez // 94. Orlando Hudson // 95. Ian Kinsler // 96. Brian Roberts // 97. JD Drew // 98. Adrian Beltre // 99. Gary Sheffield // 100. Frank Thomas.

Ok, to be fair this list was designed for a yearly league, not a dynasty league like the CPL, so that has to be taken into consideration when evaluating the quality of the rankings. But let's look at the award winners from this season to help us evaluate the list.

2007 MVPs
AL: Alex Rodriguez
NL: Jimmy Rollins
(CPL MVPs- Alex Rodriguez, Prince Fielder)

2007 CY Youngs
AL: CC Sabathia
NL: Jake Peavy
(CPL Cy Youngs- CC Sabathia, Jake Peavy)

2007 Rookies of the Year
AL: Dustin Pedroia
NL: Ryan Braun
(CPL ROYs- Daisuke Matsuzuka, Ryan Braun)

2007 Comeback Players of the Year
AL: Carlos Pena
NL: Dimitri Young

So that's all the information. I'll withhold my comments for a while because I want to see what you all have to say first. Is Athlon as terrible as they've been credited as being or do they have a bad rep? You tell me.